Still No Recession – Rocky Wins This Round

Analogy- Rocky Balboa:Ivan Drago :: U.S. Economy:Subprime & Oil Prices

U.S. Economy vs. Subprime & Oil

Explanation: The U.S. economy faces headwinds but is still not in recession. According to the Commerce Department’s estimate released this morning, 2nd quarter GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.9% (first quarter GDP was revised 0.9%). The unemployment rate is still at a historically healthy 5.5%. Industrial production also looks good.

If I was going to tell the story of this economy over the last year or so, I’d liken it to Rocky’s epic bout against Ivan Drago in Rocky IV. In this analogy, Rocky is the U.S. economy and Drago plays the part of subprime mortgages and oil prices.

Just before the fight begins, Rocky and Drago meet at center ring, and Drago says with that intimidating glare, “I Must Break You.” As the fight ensues, Rocky is pulverized in the initial rounds. And for several months through last winter and into the spring, it looked like subprime & oil would indeed break the U.S. economy. Since then, and just like Rocky IV, the fight has degenerated into a brutal battle of stamina. Our economy has endured $150 oil haymakers and countless jabs in the form of a never-ending stream of terrible financial data.

But at the end of it all, although Rocky’s face (e.g., the housing sector) was battered, bruised and bloodied; and although his legs (e.g., the U.S. consumer) were wobbly, Rocky was resilient enough to withstand the onslaught and knock Drago out of the ring. Our resilient capitalist economy will withstand the onslaught brought by subprime & oil prices – we will go on to fight another day!

Following his victory, Rocky gives an impassioned speech to the crowd, acknowledging their initial disdain for each other, and how he and Drago came to respect each other during the fight. Clearly the analogy applies once again: without question, this mortgage & oil crisis has opened people’s eyes and established a whole new level of respect for the role of financial prudence in a stable economy and the serious energy challenges we face.

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Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince Trailer!

It seems like just yesterday that the first novel in JK Rowling’s wildly popular series of books, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone, was released in 1997. I’ve read most of the books – working on the final installment, The Deathly Hallows (Year 7), now. Yes, I’m a slow reader…one of the reasons that I love the movies as well as the books.

Just this week the trailer for the sixth movie (Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince) was posted online. The movie is scheduled for release on November 21st and I can’t wait! Check it out:

The buzz online is that the last movie (Deathly Hallows) will be split into two parts with Part 1 debuting in November 2010 and Part 2 in May 2011. It seems like so far away, but, as they say – good things come to those who wait!

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A New Watering Hole for The Lake (aka Nontantum, MA)

One of the West Street's New Owners, Jessica Roche (Boston.com Photo)

The West Street Grille & Tap was a neighborhood staple for over a dozen years in the Newton, MA village of Nonantum. Last fall, the West Street closed for business. With the great food, good prices, and the fact that it was soooo close to our apartment, Dan and I were disappointed (and surprised) when it closed.

But last week the tables turned, and the West Street was re-born. Newton-local, Jessica Roche, and her Ireland-native husband Karl, bought the restaurant and re-launched the popular watering hole as the West Street Tavern & Restaurant.

We stopped by on Friday night and the place was bopping! The inside has been totally re-vamped, but the menu is, pretty much, the same (the bacon cheeseburger was scrumptious!). I was blown away by the size of the ladies room (it is double the size as it used to be). They also added a huge new bar and three flat screen TVs (the Red Sox were playing the Yankees on Friday night, so a lot of attention was paid to these new TVs!) Not to mention, they pour a good Guinness!

I can tell that frequent walks over to West Street are in the cards for us!

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Gas Prices Creating Major Changes in Travel Behavior

Today the Federal Highway Administration released their monthly traffic volume trends report for May 2008, and the data show a trend that is significant, although not surprising.

• Nationally, travel on all roads declined by 3.7% for May 2008 as compared with May 2007. This marks the 7th consecutive monthly decline in this metric.
• On a moving 12-month basis, total traffic volume fell by 10 billion miles, to 2.966 trillion miles. This is the lowest level in 3.5 years – since January of 2005 - and this metric has also declined in each of the last 7 months (the chart shows traffic volume from 1983 to 2008 – click to enlarge). 

There has never been a trend remotely like this. The current, ongoing 7-month decline represents the most significant adjustment to driving behavior in the last 25 years, if not longer. And these data are only through May…gas prices continued to rise through June and into July…the trend will continue.

Local Addendum: Traffic volume in the Northeast declined by 4.2% for May 2008 as compared with May 2007. Meanwhile, the MBTA announced that average weekday ridership in May was about 5.3% higher than during May 2007. It was the fifth monthly increase in a row. And…average weekday bus ridership crested over 400,000, which is only the fifth time in the past 101 months it had reached that level.

Decreasing traffic volume and increasing public transportation ridership are two sides of the same coin.

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Kayaking the Concord River

It rained pretty much every day this week, so, with the promise of great weather today – finally! - Elicia and I set out for some kayaking in one of my favorite places: a stretch of the Concord River that runs right through the Great Meadows National Wildlife Refuge from Carlise, MA to the Old North Bridge in Concord.

This is just an awesome place for leisurely kayaking (canoe, motor boat, etc.), getting some sun, and enjoying an area that teems with wildlife! I’ve posted a handful of pictures below (click them to enlarge).

Launch point: In Carlisle, MA, where Rt 225 crosses the Concord River      Destination: The Old North Bridge in Concord, MA                                                 Time: Round-trip to the Bridge and back usually takes about 4 hours

I like to start early, just as the sun starts to burn off the morning dew that hangs over the water

The fog dissipates within minutes of the sun rising over the trees, revealing the incredible calm of early morning on the river

On any given day, you are very likely to see several Great Blue Herons, either gliding over the surface of the water or hanging out on the river bank like this one.

There are more turtles than you can count...We've also seen Red-Tailed Hawks and a couple of deer, but they tend to elude the camera.

The beaver's humble abode.

Another native species: elicianthus buzzicus

And eventually, you reach the Old North Bridge, site of the first battle of the American Revolution

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Christian the Lion = YouTube Star

In 1960, a baby lion was purchased by a couple of guys (John Rendall and Ace Berg) in a department store (yeah – I guess they sold lions at department stores back then). They named him Christian. For years they raised him as their pet, but when Christian got too big to care for, John and Ace worked with a conservationist to reintroduce Christian back into the wild in Africa. After a year, John and Ace went back to Africa to find Christian, even though many people told them that the he would never recognize them and that it would be too difficult to find him.

Well, they did! And the reunion is incredibly touching. How do I know? Well, videos of it have surfaced  on YouTube after over 30 years since then and have gained MILLIONS of views in recent weeks! Check out a re-mixed version of the video for yourself below (just hit the play button). In addition to being on The Today Show, video footage of the reunion also appeared on The View recently. This is just another example of how powerful user-generated content and YouTube can be!

As the below video says “love knows no limits and true friendships last a lifetime.” I can’t help but tear up a little watching this video. Simply incredible. (Sigh) I can’t wait to get a dog one day

 

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The Media Has a BAD Case of Obamania

Analogy – Media:Obama :: Lewinski:Clinton

Explanation: Last week I heard a primetime network news person declare, “Obamania is here to stay!” It’s not the first or last time such absurd media bias will show up on my TV screen. But anyway, what is this Obamania that’s evidently sweeping the nation? Well, let’s see, according to Webster’s:

• Mania - (1) A form of mental disorder marked by great elation and violent action. (2) An irrational and prolonged desire or enthusiasm.   

Ah! Now I understand why the media thinks Obama is the second coming of Jesus Christ – they’re suffering from mental illness. Have you been afflicted with this horrible new disorder? The media has caught it really, really bad, and the symptoms have been quite embarrassing for them. Just watch:

And the coverage has become a lot more pathetic this week since Obama’s been on his arrogant and presumptuous international coronation tour. But hey, look on the bright side - with all this Obama worship by the establishment media at least one industry is booming during these difficult economic times…I reckon demand for knee pads is skyrocketing!

Addendum: If you’re afraid you too may be suffering from Obamania, be on the look out for other common symptoms, including: a strong sense of entitlement to things you did not earn, and a firm belief that your shit doesn’t stink and you know what is best for everybody. 

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Blogs to Buzz About

There are millions of blogs on the web. They can come in a variety of forms and can cover a variety of different topics. Among these millions are many blogs focused solely on entertaining and intriguing their readers. I wanted to share a handful of blogs that I’ve come across in recent months that I hope will be as entertaining to you as they have been to me.

I have a bunch of additions to this list, but I lost my patience for blogging today (the Internet has been going painfully slow!). I’ll plan on a follow-up post in the near future…

Cute Overload - A blog filled with photos and videos of cute animals. Surely this blog will put a smile on your face any day.

Fail Blog - A blog from the “Cheezburger Network.” Every post includes a random photo or video of how something (or someone) failed. You’d be surprised at the things on this blog – funny stuff!

Passive Aggressive Notes – VERY popular blog surrounding everyday notes. In their words…”painfully polite and hilariously hostile writings from shared spaces the world over.” For example…

I Am Neurotic - A recommendation from Dan (appropriately), this blog compiles reader submissions detailing a variety of explanations and examples of why they feel they “are neurotic.” A recent example - ”every time i pee, i have to pinch myself to make sure i’m not dreaming, as i’m afraid i’m actually about to wet the bed.”

Fanny Pack Antics – Blog with funny tourist photos – unfashionable travelers with fanny packs and ugly clothing, tourists in awkward positions, and more.  Surprisingly entertaining.

Urban Prankster - a new blog that “covers pranks, hacks, participatory art, flash mobs, and other creative endeavors that take place in public places in cities across the world.” Check out some of the videos!

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Flat Bread with Grape Tomatoes

I’ve been growing a grape tomato plant since Memorial Day weekend and it’s about ready to be harvested. And, with the recent “tomato scare,” let’s just say I see a lot of home-grown grape tomatoes in my dietary future. So I’ve been thinking, what can I do with all these grape tomatoes besides throwing ‘em on a salad? Here is one idea I tried recently that was freakin’ scrumptious

• Focaccia Bread with Grape Tomatoes:This is an easy way to make focaccia (basically flat bread) at home. Ingredients: 1 store bought pizza dough; 1-2 cloves of garlic, finely chopped; 1-2 shallots, thinly sliced; 1-2 sprigs worth of fresh rosemary leaves; a big handful of grape tomatoes; good olive oil; and salt/black pepper. Instructions:Get a rolling pin and some flour on your surface and roll out the pizza dough into a rectangle (about 12×16 inches), about a 1/4 inch thick. Transfer the dough to a baking sheet lined with parchment paper so it doesn’t stick. Press the tips of your fingers into the dough, creating dimples all over it. Drizzle olive oil all over the dough and use a brush to make sure the whole thing has a good coating (you know you have enough when the olive oil pools in the dimples - yum!). Now sprinkle the chopped garlic, sliced shallots, and rosemary on the dough. Then take your grape tomatoes and press them into the dough so they stay in place. Sprinkle a pinch of black pepper on there, and bake it @ 400 degrees for about 20 minutes.

I made this last weekend and it was really good (pictured below). Instead of using salt, I grated some parmesean reggiano cheese on top – it has just the right amount of saltiness – while it was still piping hot out of the oven. Otherwise, top it with some coarse salt (Kosher or Sea Salt) to taste.

Focaccia with Grape Tomatoes

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5 Questions

1. Are Facts Obsolete? Economist Thomas Sowell points out that many of Barack Obama’s positions are seemingly based on the notion that believing is seeing rather than actual information about the successes and failures of different policy concepts.                                 My Take: I share his frustration, particularly when it comes to important economic policy issues. There is an unbelievable amount of rhetoric in this election, and most of it belongs in the category of: be careful what you wish for, you just might get it. Restricting trade and raising the tax on captial gains will help our economy and “the common man”? You sure about that? Increasing the minimum wage sounds good, but will it actually benefit lower-skilled and less-experienced workers? Why don’t we look at the facts and the data instead of just saying things that make people feel good?

2. What’s Next, Danny? Celtics’ GM, Danny Ainge, had to make the first tough decision of the offseason, opting not to offer four years to James Posey, who instead signed with New Orleans. So, who will fill Posey’s shoes?                      My Take: This is a tough one. For the Celtics, Posey was probably the most valuable  bench player in the NBA last year, and it won’t be easy to replace his defense and 3-point shooting. There is something about bringing back Ryan Gomes that just feels right. He’s a solid player and Boston suits him - he’s the NBA equivalent of a “dirt dog.”

3. Is Failure No Longer An Option? Larry Kudlow raises an important and difficult question about the role of government intervention in the troubled financial sector (e.g., Fannie/Freddie, Bearn Sterns).                                           My Take: Here is what makes me uneasy and indecisive about the crisis playing out in the financial sector right now: On one hand, there are significant negative consequences when large companies fail, and government should play a role in supporting relative stability; BUT, on the other hand, if government steps in too far in “bailing out” these various financial entities, it undermines a cornerstone of our economic system, namely, risk. Risk begets reward and reason. This is a question of moral hazard – if they know the government will swoop in to save the day, thereby eliminating all risk, why would these companies bother making reasonable, thoughtful decisions in this first place? With respect to these bail outs, etc. we need to walk a fine line. If there is one thing we should all keep in mind when thinking about this issue, it is that capitalism only works when there is opportunity for great success AND opportunity for great failure.

4. Beer: Is There Anything It Can’t Do? George Will explains why beer has helped to strengthen the human gene pool.                                                      My Take: OK, this one is obvious. The answer is, emphatically, NO. He’s written a really interesting article, but for important questions like this, I generally defer to another genius of social commentary, who has famously proclaimed, “Beer: the cause of, and solution to, all of life’s problems!”

5. Why End The Income Tax In Massachusetts? Question 1 on Massachusetts’ November ballot will be a proposal to abolish the state’s income tax.                 My Take: Vote Yes on Question 1. Revolution is in the air once again in the cradle of liberty. The blowhards on Beacon Hill are bloated with your tax dollars and mine, and it’s high time we send them a message. I don’t think anyone would dispute that there is a ridiculous amount of wasteful and inefficient spending in our state government. This law, which almost passed in 2002 with 45% of the vote, would effectively reduce the state’s budget by 39%, back to the 1995 level. The opposition to this law will say that the world will end if it passes, but I’m prepared to call their bluff. I mean, it makes sense even if you set aside the benefial effects of putting this money in the hands of the private sector instead of the public sector. Just consider this: Between 1990 and 2007 the population of Massachusetts (i.e., the people served by government) grew 8.3%. During that same time period, Massachsuetts state government spending more than doubled.

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The Muppets Go to Hollywood

TMZ.com, which we all know provides some of the highest quality news reporting on the net , posted a photo slide show of celebrities matched up with their Muppet look-alikes. Some of the resemblances are simply uncanny! Check out the whole feature here or a few of my favorites below.

     

Telly and Zach Braff                       Kermit the Frog and Pharrell Williams

     

Ernie & Bert and Jimmy Kimmel      Cookie Monster and James Earl Jones

& Adam Carolla 

     

Janice and Donatella Versace         Gorg and Bruce Vilanch

     

Pepe the King Prawn and Steve      Dr. Bunsen Honeydew and Al Roker

Buscemi

     

Crazy Harry and Chris Robinson    Rowlf the Dog and Jorge Garcia

  

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Bubble Wrap

Often times it is the littlest things that bring us the most joy in life. Case in point…bubble wrap! This may be one of our wackier posts, but whatever floats your boat, right?

• Pop dem’ bubbles online with some virtual bubble wrap.
• Looking to buy a new calendar that is not only functional, but also extremely fun? Well consider this one – you can pop a bubble for every day that passes throughout the year. It even has the major holidays marked!
• Got an idea for a bubble wrap invention? Well, you could enter it into the Bubble Wrap Competition for Young Inventors. The deadline is November 3rd and the winner gets a trip to NYC, up to $10,000 in savings bonds, and special recognition at Bubble Wrap Appretiation Day next January.  
• Want to add a bubble wrap widget to your site or blog? Look no further than WidgetBox.com (of course, I couldn’t figure out how to add it to Elicia Buzz) .
• Want to read up on the history of bubble wrap? Check out the official Bubble Wrap Book.

Lastly, from virtual-bubblewrap.com, a few bubble wrap etiquette tips (pretty hilarious):

• Don’t pop someone else’s bubble wrap without permission. This could lead to Bad Things Happening to your person..
• Don’t pop bubble wrap in quiet public places (like libraries) unless you want it confiscated.
• Don’t pop bubble wrap in a store if you haven’t paid for it. They get cranky when their rolls of bubble wrap are all limp.
• It is always good form to offer to share your bubble wrap.
• Giving your bubble wrap to children is good for Karma points.
• Chicks dig bubble wrap. Always bring it along on a date.

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Willie and Wynton – Two Men with the Blues

Well, first of all, I think labels were invented to sell the music. You had to know what to call it before you could sell it. So they call it, the blues, jazz, bluegrass, gospel, or whatever. But, some music accomplishes it all…so what do you call that? And, that’s pretty much what I like to play.”  - Willie Nelson

Check out this cool short documentary of live music and behind the scenes video of Willie and jazz legend Wynton Marsalis playin’ the blues. Their new record, Two Men with Blues, was released today. Long live Willie!

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Not Just Another Sunday (Princess Zelda Lives!)

White birds soar freely in the skies above the vast blue ocean. A pirate ship sails along, cutting through the waves. On deck is a crew of pirates and their leader Tetra, a brave and brash girl. Traveling with them is Link, the boy in green…

This is where my very own world-travelling, beast slaying, treasure hunting, puzzle solving adventure began last Christmas. You would have thought that I was a 12-year old kid when I ripped open a very neatly wrapped (I wouldn’t expect anything less from Dan) copy of The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass for the Nintendo DS last December.

Well, after spending months in search of Tetra (also known as Princess Zelda), I’ve finally defeated the evil Bellumand saved her. I may, in fact, now have some form of DS carpal tunnel as a result of today’s final epic battle.  

I have to admit that it probably wouldn’t take most “gamers” months to finish this game, but it makes sense for me because I tend to play DS in spurts here and there. Plus, with story driven games like Phantom Hourglass, you have to set aside at least a good 1/2 hour or 1 hour to play – this can be a challenge for a hard-working girl such as myself. Not to mention, this is not a game you can play in the car (the whole game is played via the DS Stylus pen and bumps in the road can mess you up).

The 14th game in Nintendo’s Legend of Zelda series, Phantom Hourglass definitely deserves all of the awards it has recieved over the last couple years including being named “Game of the Year” in 2007 by IGN, GameSpy, and GameSpot and many others.

Great game – thanks Nintendo (and Dan)! Next on my list – the highly acclaimed Professor Layton and the Curious Village.

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Independence Day – We Should Celebrate America and Her Symbols

The Great Seal of the United States

On July 4, 1776, the same day that independence from Great Britain was declared, the Continental Congress also named the first committee (consisted of Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, and John Adams) to design a Great Seal, or national emblem, for the country. Similar to other nations, The United States of America needed an official symbol of sovereignty to formalize and seal international treaties, transactions, etc. It took six years and three committees in order for the Continental Congress to agree on a design. The final design of the Great Seal includes a shield reminiscent of our national flag, an bald eagle (well-known national symbol of the United States), and arrows along with olive branches to represent the power of war and peace together.

I mention the Great Seal because, against my better judgment, I recently visited Obama’s website to peruse some of his policy statements. But before I could even dip my toe in the rhetorical pool, I noticed that the background image on his website is a perverse distortion of the Great Seal of the United States (see below). The image shows Obama’s “rising sun” (er, implication, “rising son”?) over the U.S. shield and flag. The eagle is dropping the olive branches and the arrows, turning its back and flying away. And, one of the arrows is piercing through the American flag. This modified Great Seal is the background image on every page of Obama’s website.

So, why would Obama want this image to represent him? What is he trying to say/convey? If you were running for President, is this the image you would you want on your website? Honestly, I’m not bringing this up just because it is an opportunity to level criticism against Obama. I genuinely wonder about the mentality behind this image, and it bothers me because it seems to be indicative of a disturbing, growing consensus that we need to “remake” the country and that so many people feel they are just “too good to be American.”

That said, it’s worth pointing out that I’m not basing my decision to support McCain exclusively on things like this. My mind was made up long, long ago (before lapel pins, reverend Wright, Bill Ayers, etc.) based on the simple notion that I’d prefer to elect someone who is experienced and similar to me and the majority of Americans in terms of the political spectrum: basically in the middle, but slightly to the right with respect to the military and taxes. Obama is woefully inexperienced and has a voting record on the far-left-wing, even by his own party’s metrics. No, thank you.

Look, America has a history of setting uniquely high standards for itself, and by those standards, sometimes we fall short and need change and a chance to refresh. Bush is a dope, and overall, has performed well below-average as President. One could even make a pretty strong case that some of his actions constitute impeachable offenses under the Constitution. All of that – granted. I agree that we need change. But Obama and his “Great Seal” does not reflect the kind of change we need and is certainly not change I can believe in!

America is not a mean, evil country. We do not need to “remake” America. I’m bothered by the fact that optimism and pride towards our country, and simply being American, seems to get scarcer with each passing day. America is, both in action and principle, a fundamentally good country and a force of good in the world, despite what so many self-righteous liberals would have you believe. The beauty of this country is that it is what we make it. And this election season, we should make it a country that respects the heritage and values represented by important symbols like the Great Seal, and reject those who would desecrate these symbols.

I apologize for the histrionics – didn’t mean to get so caught up in the symbolism of this Obama seal thing. Maybe I just need some time away from Newton and Cambridge…people’s distain for “Brand America” is palpable around here. Anyway, today is Independence Day so I’m going to shake it off, go out, and celebrate my independence from pessimism and my optimism for American now and in the long-run!

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